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2012 and all that

May 23 2009
Why does the government think its target of ending rough sleeping by the time the Olympics come to London is still possible? With a recession on its way, does Homeless Link's target stand? Despite predictions of a downturn in the economy and more people becoming homeless, the Department of Communities and Local Government (DCLG) announced on 18th November, alongside partnership charities, it was maintaining the target of ending rough sleeping by 2012. Last month we printed a letter from a reader suggesting the possible ripple effect repossessions and increased unemployment could have on the number of people seeking support from the homeless sector. "I'd like to know what those who think they'll eradicated the homeless by 2012 are planning to do now," the reader asked. As we set out to find out, the government beat us to it, by announcing a statement claiming it is still possible. In 2006 Homeless Link, the umbrella organisation overseeing charity and cross-party policy on housing, announced its plans to end rough sleeping in the UK by the time the 2012 Olympics come to London. "We believe it is right to aim high," the manifesto proclaims. "The UK is a prosperous country. The opportunity is ours. The moment to act is now." Although Homeless Link was unavailable for comment this month, could it even be fair to say the moment has passed? In our other article on the impact of the credit crunch, ominously titled 'A grim prediction', you will read the miserable figures - unemployment figures on the up and with them, repossessions. As it stands, despite partial nationalisation and multi-billion funding lifelines, the world's banks are still reluctant to lend to one another and then, in turn, to members of the public and smaller businesses. This we have seen evidenced on the high street, with stalwart firms such as Woolies and MFI being placed into administration. Services already stretched are struggling to meet ever-growing demand, and Crisis warned, only days before it backed the government's renewed pledge, that the economy is harbouring a "homelessness timebomb". So, in view of this, why do the government, and partnership agencies, still think the target is still possible? In November, housing minister Margaret Beckett announced a new plan to solve the problem of homelessness in Britain. But although the government makes it clear it still plans to hit the 2012 target, and that "rough sleeping in 21st century Britain is unacceptable", there is no detail as to what people plan to do with an increase in the numbers moving onto the street, and little in the way of extra funds. According to the New Statesman, despite media reports that £200m is being pledged to support the plan, the solution includes virtually no new money beyond a further £2.5m for a scheme to support new social enterprise start-ups. However, one clear change comes in the statistics. The plan, and the new policy on rough sleeping called 'No One Left Out', which we will report on in full in the February issue, states that ministers are to make it clear the headline figure for rough sleepers in the UK is "not an estimate of the number of people sleeping rough in the country". This figure has remained static at around 500 nationally since 2002 - a number that few people, even those far from the streets, find hard to believe. Given all this, can the government really hope to end rough sleeping as they distance themselves from the only, if controversial, means of measuring it? Opposition MPs have criticised ministers for undermining their own policy, with Shadow Housing Minister Grant Shapps continuing to lobby for an improved head counts policy. The Pavement, among many other publications, has regularly reported on apparent attempts to fiddle the figures in the cities, as move-ons often appear to coincide with official counts. But overall, most people working within the sector are concerned that with limited, or even diminishing resources, and a lack of new ideas, the 2012 target is looking like a pipe-dream. Grant Everitt, Shelter's street homeless project manager, said the numbers had been fudged for a long time and raised concerns that there would be an increase in the enforcement of this to see targets reached. "The target can only be achieved by adopting measures that rough sleepers themselves are willing to take," said Mr Everitt. "I acknowledge there are some people who are helped by enforcement, if backed by good supportive service, but for others this will not solve their homelessness, but displace them 'off the radar' and make it even harder to engage with them than it is now." He referred to Operation Poncho, which The Pavement is discussing again this month as an example of the lengths some organisations may resort to in order to keep 2012 a reality in the recession.
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